Politics hasn’t gone away during the pandemic. It just seems that way.
The battle for the Democratic nomination was a major story for two months this year. First Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg were up, then down. Bernie Sanders seemed to be on a path to the nomination until he wasn’t.
Former Vice President Joe Biden rose from the ashes in South Carolina and suddenly was unstoppable. He breezed to big wins across the country, most of his former opponents endorsed him and it seemed Biden, who first sought the presidency in 1987, would finally have his shot at the White House.
Then … no one much cared.
As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe, killing thousands and frightening millions, the question of which Democrat would run against President Donald Trump on Nov. 3 lost much of its newsworthy status.
Biden was sidelined. He has held a few virtual rallies and done some interviews, but he struggles to gain much attention. That’s not a good thing for a presidential candidate.
Trump, fresh off his impeachment trial in the Senate, seized the spotlight, holding daily televised briefings where he attacked reporters, offered a variety of responses on the virus he had previously dismissed, and generally preened and postured.
In other words, he did his act. Denied the opportunity to hold the rallies where his fans scream as he brags, bullies and basically spews BS, he embraced the White House podium.
Despite his many misstatements and constant sparring with the press, Trump’s approval numbers have edged up. Surveys show even some Democrats and independents like what they are seeing and hearing.
So does that mean he is the favorite this fall? Perhaps so, perhaps not.
It’s common for a leader, even an unpopular one like Trump, to gain support in a crisis. It happened to George W. Bush after 9/11, to Ronald Reagan in the wake of the Beirut bombing attack that killed 241 Americans, to Jimmy Carter after the hostages were seized in Tehran, even to Tsar Nicolas II when World War I erupted.
Those bumps in public support didn’t last every time. While Bush and Reagan won second terms, Carter was defeated by Reagan, and the tsar was deposed as he and his family were murdered.
We don’t know what will happen to Trump this fall, although he is almost assuredly safe from the grim fate of the Romanov family.
His numbers could continue to rise or they may fade sharply. For all we know, the public will grow outraged over the number of people who fall ill and die in this pandemic.
They could blame Trump for his slow response and disinterest in rallying the country to prepare for this challenge. He could be impeached again and if not removed from office, weakened.
Like his fellow populist politician in Great Britain, Boris Johnson, who landed in an ICU unit after scoffing at the dangers of the virus, Trump could be infected with COVID-19. He is in his 70s, overweight, far from robust and likes to surround himself with people.
No one can wish that on him. OK, some might. But they shouldn’t.
The odds are he will be the Republican nominee. He will be weakened by the impeachment and his tumultuous term, as well as the growing outrage over the pandemic. Add in an economy in sour shape and massive unemployment and, well, he faces a tall hurdle.
Biden is far from an overwhelming favorite. He often stumbles on the campaign trail and does not have the passionate support Trump or Sanders enjoy.
He is selling competence and a return to better, less strident times. America might be ready for that message after four years of Trump and nine months of the coronavirus.
First, Biden has to find a way to return to the national stage. We all want this nightmare to end so we can return to work and play, to leave our homes and worries for a few hours.
Trump needs that, but so does Biden. If the pandemic fades, the politics will return.
Even people who dislike politicians and elections are ready for that change.
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